Worked examples — including the misses
Short notes on real chart structures from the Indian market: what the screen saw, what happened next, and what it taught. Company names are withheld on public pages; subscribers see the full notes.
Order-book visibility and a nine-month base
A component manufacturer with three years of order visibility built a nine-month base with contractions of 28%, 14% and 5%. The breakout came on 3.1× average volume the week after a large order announcement. What worked: the base preceded the news. What to watch: valuation stretched to 70× trailing earnings, so the stop matters more than the target.
The breakout that failed
A wind-equipment stock cleared its pivot on average volume only, drifted for four sessions and fell 9% on the fifth. The 8% stop triggered for a −8.4% loss. Lesson: a breakout without volume is a coin-flip, and the stop is what keeps a coin-flip cheap.
A long base in an old-economy name
A cable maker spent 14 months between ₹380 and ₹520. Earnings grew through the base, so the P/E compressed while the price went nowhere. The move out of the base came with the sector rotation map showing T&D entering the leading quadrant. Structure plus fundamentals plus sector tailwind — the combination the research looks for.
Recent listing, first base
Listed 11 months earlier, the stock fell 35% from its debut, then built a seven-week base above the 50-day EMA. First bases after listings are unreliable in isolation; this one was tracked for volume behaviour rather than traded.
Case studies are educational descriptions of past price behaviour and are not recommendations.